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Digital Cities: Morning Keynote
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 04/18/2005 - 14:27.
Berge Ayvasian, a VP at the Yankee Group, a technology forecasting group, gave the morning keynote. Ayvasian had some interesting data: the Yankee Group projects that the number of households served by broadband will double over the next three years, from about 30 million to 60 million. Households served by community broadband projects are expected to grow by more than 600%, much faster than DSL growth (100%) or cable modem (75%). Cable is growing slowest because cable companies already have much of the market locked. up. Cable will still have at least twice as many household as DSL.
Ayvasian described the current duopoly problem correctly. The telcos and the cable companies that form the dupolopy in most communities believe they can make more money from existing customers, rather than by increasing the number of customers served. So they have little incentive to expand service coverage. But that businsess mode leaves communities at the mercy of the duopoly.
Ayvasian also mentioned a start up community effort in Fontana, California, where local leaders have declared, "Broadband is not an expense, it is an investment in the future." The Fontana project will use an open access, wholesale service model (the right approach).
Ayvasian also mentioned that other countries are moving fast. Ethiopia intends to have broadband available throughout the country by 2008, so I have a new slogan for communities: "Our town--almost as good as Ethiopia!"
In summary, Ayvasian proposed several principles that he said should drive broadband.
- Community ownership
- A wholesale broadband business model
- Multiple service providers
Broadband Growth
Was there any more explanation on the circumstances by which the community broadband would grow byh 600% as opposed to lesser amounts by cable and DSL. There are a number of roles to fill: deciding on the need and getting started, developing the business case, designing the network (in the context of legacy systems), constructing the network, maintenance/management and operations, providing services over the network (clearly the more the merrier, with the fewest barriers to entry) and then aggregating, informing and educating the various local residential, small business and non-profit markets (assuming big business and government already know) on the benefits available through the Internet.
600% broadband growth
The 600% number has to be considered in context. With just a handful of community broadband projects underway, representing less than 1% of the broadband in the country (that's my guess), a few more community projects give you those big growth rates.
Also remember that community broadband includes inexpensive wireless projects, which are very useful, but don't compare in investment with a community fiber project.
What struck me at the conference was the general agreement that fiber is absolutely a critical component. I've always argued this, but a lot of folks have insisted that wireless could fill the bill. This seems to have changed, and I think HDTV requirements are driving it (as I said they would). PacketFront is designing their equipment for three HDTV channels per household, with 18 megabits/channel. WiMax won't touch that kind of bandwidth on a per household basis.